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Traffic Details

An independent traffic assessment has been undertaken along the proposed DPEP corridor for analyzing the characteristics of the existing traffic and deducing indicative assumptions for forecasting the traffic demand for the DPEP. Surveys conducted on Highway 1A, at each of the sections between potential toll plaza locations on the DPEP on a weekday and a weekend include,

  • Classified link count surveys to establish traffic volumes by hour by vehicle type on weekdays and weekends;
  • Origin-Destination (OD) interview surveys to establish the travel OD pattern on weekdays and weekends;
  • Journey time surveys to measure current peak and off peak travel times; and
  • Stated Preference (SP) surveys to establish the value of time.



Existing traffic situation

Based on the surveys conducted, it has been observed that the composition of the weekend traffic along the existing Highway 1A has a different composition as compared to that on a weekday. The number of motorbikes, cars and tourist buses (including minibus, standard and tourist buses) are much larger, as passengers travel back to Ho Chi Minh City from Phan Thiet or the neighboring central provinces such as Da Nang, Hoi An, Nha Trang, etc. It has also been observed that the traffic volume decreases significantly from Dau Giay to the eastern part of the DPEP alignment.

The existing traffic volumes along the Highway 1A on a weekend are as below.

Table 1: Surveyed Traffic Flow on Highway 1A on weekend (in PCU)

Location Motor
bike
Car Taxi Minibus (<25 seats) Standard Bus (>25 seats) Tourist Bus Light Truck (<4 Tons, 2 axles) Medium Truck (>4 Tons, 2 axles) Heavy Truck/ Container (>=3 axles)
2 1650 1260 60 44 358 3518 1044 1688 2529
4 3060 1441 35 45 48 4666 2022 2783 3828
6 3150 1349 45 24 62 3166 2216 2593 2502

The existing traffic volumes along the Highway 1A on a weekday are as below.

Table 2: Surveyed Traffic Flow on Highway 1A on weekday (in PCU)

Location Motorbike Car Taxi Minibus (<25 seats) Standard Bus (>25 seats) Tourist Bus Light Truck (<4 Tons, 2 axles) Medium Truck (>4 Tons, 2 axles) Heavy Truck/ Container (>=3 axles)
1 7460 2815 127 0 556 3432 4226 4858 3360
2 1580 899 53 252 26 2272 768 3025 2931
3 4340 1483 71 96 172 2926 3108 3515 3075
4 1950 1109 31 3 4 3534 2068 3555 4197
5 1620 1052 30 0 6 2324 1626 2335 2853
6 1310 1064 43 47 30 2182 1508 2580 2304
7 3110 1197 50 2 96 2074 3200 1645 2193

The vehicular traffic has been converted into Passenger Car Units (PCU) using the Highway Code process 22TCN273-01, issued by the MOT.

From the above tables, the traffic volume of trucks (light, medium and heavy trucks) is lower on the weekend, since the truck drivers are normally hired by the vehicle owners and do not work on the weekends. Location 2 shows increased volume of light trucks (near Long Khanh Town) on the weekend attributable to the light trucks operating around Long Khanh Town and Dau Giay but not travelling the entire route up to Phan Thiet. Despite of the differences between the weekend and the weekday traffic volumes across vehicle categories, the traffic volumes near the urban, populated areas on the western side of the alignment are generally higher than the east. On the east, the traffic volumes increase near Phan Thiet as it serves as a regional hub.

Travel proportion from 700 hours to 1900 hours on weekends and weekdays for cars, buses and motorbikes on Highway 1A is as portrayed.

Figure 1: Travel Proportion on Highway 1A on Weekend

Figure 2: Travel Proportion on Highway 1A on Weekdays

From the above figures, motorbike is the main mode of travel compared to others. The volume of motorbikes increases in the morning during the peak hours from 700 hours to 900 hours and in the afternoon from 1500 hours to 1700 hours, while it gradually decreases in the noon. The volume of buses increases in the noon towards the Phan Thiet end of the proposed expressway. The tourists buses departing from Ho Chi Minh City during the early hours of the day go to Tan Duc by noon, and then to Phan Thiet by 1500 hours. The weekend and weekday traffic volumes show a constant number of buses from 1200 hours to 1500 hours, which significantly reduce by 1800 hours. Traffic profile is mainly affected by the number of motorcycles observed, with the level of other vehicular traffic being similar during most survey hours.

Figure 3: Vehicle category-wise traffic volumes along Highway 1A on Weekend

Figure 4: Vehicle category-wise traffic volumes along Highway 1A on Weekday




Key findings on the existing traffic situation

  • On the Highway 1A, at the surveyed locations, the traffic volume of motorbikes, cars, tourist buses and trucks during weekdays is higher compared to the weekends. During the day, the traffic volumes across vehicle categories are higher from 700 hours to 1000 hours and 1500 hours to 1900 hours, both on the weekends and the weekdays.
  • Motorbikes account for a significant proportion of the total traffic volume. The volume of motorbikes increases during the morning and evening hours both on weekdays and weekends and decreases at noon.
  • The number of buses increases at noon and then significantly reduces by evening.
    For trucks (light, medium and heavy trucks), the traffic volume is lower at the weekend compared to weekdays.
  • The locations with close proximity to residential areas (i.e. locations 1, 4 and 7) tend to generate short traffic trips (motorbike, car, light truck); whereas locations 2, 3, 5 and 6 are away from the residential areas and generate medium to longer distance trips for traffic across vehicular categories. The traffic volumes are significantly high closer to Dau Giay and fall significantly towards the eastern part of the alignment.
  • 80% of the people travel a distance of over 100km; followed by 12% of the people who travel a distance of 50-100km; followed by 7% of the people who travel a distance of less than 50km.
  • Business/work is the most common trip purpose, followed by tourism.
  • The journey time is 2 to 2.5 hours on an average with an average speed of 120km/hr.



Willingness to Pay (WTP) Details

728 interviews conducted at locations 2 and 7 on Highway 1A from Dau Giay to Phan Thiet, with 321 interviews at location 2 and 407 interviews at location 7 over two days to assess the willingness to pay of the users for an improved road facility.

Value of Time (VOT), in US cents per min

Table 3: Value of time (in US cents per min)

Distance Ignoring Comfort and Safety Considering Safety and Comfort
  Car Light Truck Travel/ Leisure Work Car Light Truck Travel/ Leisure Work
< 50 Kms 9.96 7.75 - 9.96 10.37 8.04 - 10.37
<= 100 Kms 10.61 8.26 - 10.61 11.62 9.01 - 11.62
>100 Kms 11.18 8.70 11.12 11.18 12.12 9.40 12.06 12.12

From the above table, the drivers of cars generally ignore comfort and safety and have higher VOT when distance increases; whereas light truck drivers save money as compared to time. When considering the safety and comfort issues, both users have a higher VOT on the expressway when distance increases; although light truck drivers still has a lower values compared to car drivers.

Indicative assumptions for traffic projections

Population and economic growth projections
Table 6: Population and Economic Growth Projections

  Population Growth, % pa GDP Growth, % pa
  2012-15 2015-20 2020-30 2012-15 2015-20 2020-30
Binh Thuan 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 6.4% 5.1% 5.4%
Dong Nai 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 6.0% 4.8% 7.4%
Vung Tau 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 8.9% 6.6% 5.2%
Ho Chi Minh City 3.2% 2.8% 1.2% 4.6% 3.9% 5.1%
Red River Delta 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 6.7% 5.3% 5.3%
Northern Midlands and mountain areas 2.3% 2.1% 0.9% 3.6% 3.2% 4.3%
Northern central and central coastal area 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 5.0% 4.2% 5.2%
Central highlands 1.9% 1.8% 0.8% 7.5% 5.8% 6.1%
South East 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 6.7% 5.3% 4.5%
Mekong river delta 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 10.4% 7.4% 5.5%



Value of time (VOT)

Table 7: Value of Time, in USD/hour

In USD/hour, 2012 prices Car Coach HGV
2015 12.86 12.86 12.50
2020 14.36 14.36 16.05
2030 18.89 18.89 26.31

Vehicle Ownership

There is usually a strong relationship between real GDP, GDP per capita growth and the car registrations. The following formula combining the regional GDP, the total population and the urban population at provincial level may used to assume the growth rate in vehicular traffic while forecasting the traffic.

1.67 X [Urban Pop] x ([GDP]/ [Population) ^0.964




Highway 1A and Other New Roads

Highway 1A parallel to the proposed DPEP for majority of the sections shall not be expanded to ensure that there is minimum diversion of traffic from the proposed DPEP to the Highway 1A. No other major new strategic road links are being planned by government or other bodies in the vicinity of the proposed DPEP.




Tourism

The GOV has plans to undertake significant development in the Tourism industry by increasing the tourist arrivals in Phan Thiet three fold. The table below shows a current estimate of the increase in tourist arrival.

Table 8: Growth Rate in the Tourists Arrival

Growth Rate (%) Dong Nai Binh Thuan Vung Tau HCMC
2012-15 5.6% 10.9% 9.4% 6.9%
2015-20 8.5% 17.2% 13.7% 10.2%
2020-25 8.5% 17.2% 13.7% 10.2%
2025-30 8.5% 17.2% 13.7% 10.2%
2030-35 8.5% 17.2% 13.7% 10.2%

Ramp up factors that can be used for projecting the DPEP traffic

Table 9: Assumed Traffic Ramp-up Factors

Year of Expressway Operation % of full forecast
Year 1 75%
Year 2 80%
Year 3 85%
Year 4 90%
Year 5 95%
Year 6 100%

Average Hour to Daily Conversion Factors
Table 10: Assumed Hourly to Daily Traffic Conversion Factors

Forecast Year Conversion Factor
2018 24
2020 24
2025 22
2030 22
2035 20

Daily to Annual Conversion
The daily traffic calculated based on the hourly to daily conversion and any correction necessary for the capacities may be converted to an annual traffic forecast using the following equation.

Annual flow = [(Weekday Flow PCU/hr x Hour-Day Conversion x 5) + (Weekend Flow PCU/hr x Hour-Day Conversion x 2)]/7 x365

Expressway Capacity
Table 11: Assumed Daily Capacities of DPEP (PCU per day)

Lane Configuration Daily Capacity (PCU/day)
Dual-2 108,000
Dual-3 162,000



Toll Rates

The base toll rate for the DPEP may be assumed within an overall maximum ceiling of 7.5 cents per PCU per km (in 2012 prices). The base toll rate may be assumed to increase linked to the inflation in Vietnam (expressed as a percentage of the base toll rate) once every 3 years. Financial assessment and toll revenues can be analyzed through the sensitivity analysis of the impact of toll rate on traffic volumes on the DPEP.